24.3 C
New York
Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Why People Know So Much About the Midterms

- Advertisement -
- Advertisement -

But the margin is never decisive. Sure, Rick Scott pulls away as Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio falter, but he leads by less than one point in three surveys released over the past month. In 2008, Barack Obama continues to hold a lead in polls of Florida, but he still loses by less than one percent in the end to John McCain.

The theory behind this reporting is fairly simple. Voters are largely behind Donald Trump — and the candidates with the strongest chances of stopping him aren’t surging, they’re steadily losing support. Either that’s the end of this race, or Trump is likely to do more to keep this one from finishing.

[EDITOR’S NOTE: Pastimes and objects often have unconscious symbolic meaning, and that applies in Washington, D.C., politics as much as anywhere else. After months of Democratic self-destruction, and months of Republican cheerleading, it’s only natural to think this election is going to be just like 2016. And it’s not.]

It’s also not surprising that Trump is holding on to most of his 2016 supporters, especially those older voters who voted for him enthusiastically. He’s still hanging on, even while often acting inappropriately, like when he handed out thousands of dollars worth of hats, and insulted the intelligence of a Gold Star family. Over the past month, even as Democrats have assumed a lead in the polls, Trump has held up much better among people over 50 than among people under 50.

The lack of new data clearly emboldens Democrats and Republicans alike, even as they avoid saying things that alienate voters.

- Advertisement -

Latest news

Dozens of missiles fired at Gaza in new wave of violence

Gaza: Amid concerns that an attack on the enclave would lead to prolonged bloodletting, Israel is using tanks, artillery and attack helicopters to attack...
- Advertisement -

In Congress, Democrats Press On With Proposal for Russian Election Probe

At an empty U.S. Capitol, a starkly different world, Democrats on Wednesday night pressed forward with a bipartisan proposal to create a task force...

Curtis Fuller, Tenor Saxophonist and Spiritual Voice, Dies at 88

Curtis Fuller, the towering tenor saxophonist who fused deep spiritual wisdom and an artful, rhythmic technique into his work, has died, his friend and...

See Who Re-Released Nicki Minaj’s New Songs in 2018

Nicki Minaj is back with another batch of new music, and it includes a collection of songs with Lil Wayne and Drake. Check out...

Related news

Dozens of missiles fired at Gaza in new wave of violence

Gaza: Amid concerns that an attack on the enclave would lead to prolonged bloodletting, Israel is using tanks, artillery and attack helicopters to attack...

In Congress, Democrats Press On With Proposal for Russian Election Probe

At an empty U.S. Capitol, a starkly different world, Democrats on Wednesday night pressed forward with a bipartisan proposal to create a task force...

Curtis Fuller, Tenor Saxophonist and Spiritual Voice, Dies at 88

Curtis Fuller, the towering tenor saxophonist who fused deep spiritual wisdom and an artful, rhythmic technique into his work, has died, his friend and...

See Who Re-Released Nicki Minaj’s New Songs in 2018

Nicki Minaj is back with another batch of new music, and it includes a collection of songs with Lil Wayne and Drake. Check out...
- Advertisement -